Market Trend Of Polyester Staple Fiber After New Year'S Day

After the new year's day, the price of polyester staple fiber stabilized at over 6000 yuan / T; however, the futures market fell in recent two days, but the spot market price was very resistant to fall; for future expectations, the collision of long and short news in the market was relatively fierce; on the one hand, the equity inventory of enterprises continued to be negative, and most of the downstream orders could be up to March, but on the other hand, the pressure of raw material supply was expected to increase, staple fiber spot Processing fee space has been significantly higher than other polyester products, the market is full of empty news, how will it develop in the future?

According to the current fundamentals, in January, the operating rate of downstream mills has gradually declined. However, since October 2020, the equity inventory of polyester staple fiber enterprises has continued to be negative. In addition, the number of factory maintenance after the middle of the year has increased, so the supply pressure of the industry in the first quarter is generally low. Moreover, although the downstream mills have abundant raw material inventory, most of their own orders can be received in March. Under the background of abundant processing fees and good orders, the mills may still have a wave of stock preparation before the festival.

Moreover, compared with the continuous rise of cotton, viscose staple fiber and other cotton spinning raw materials, polyester staple fiber is not increasing at present; at present, the cotton polyester price difference is still at the historical high level, and the viscose polyester price difference is continuously widening; the yarn buyers think that polyester staple fiber is still at a low value level, and the processing cost space of various pure spinning and blended yarns is good, especially pure polyester t32s The profit space should be more than 1000 yuan / ton, so theoretically speaking, the mill can accept the current price of staple fiber.

Based on the above theory, the future market of polyester staple fiber is still relatively optimistic; however, from the perspective of raw material cost, with the implementation of the maintenance plan of polyester plant and the gradual increase of supply, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will gradually intensify. Although the short-term supply of ethylene glycol is slightly tight, it will also face the contradiction between supply and demand in the future Expectations are not optimistic. However, it is worth noting that the industry's expectation of oil is optimistic, which will form a strong support for polyester raw materials from the cost.

The author believes that the main factor restricting the price rise of polyester staple fiber is that there are still some low-cost goods in the market that have not yet been digested. At present, the staple fiber cost of traders' mills is mostly lower than 6150 yuan / ton. At the juncture that the expectation is not all good news and is approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the buyer's wait-and-see mentality is still relatively strong, so it is common sense that the spot price will fall in a narrow range. However, based on the current fundamentals, the short fiber enterprises in the first quarter have negative inventory or become normal, coupled with the increase in routine maintenance at the end of the year, and the holiday time of the downstream mills is slightly later than expected, and the market's medium and long-term oil expectations are still optimistic. Overall, the polyester staple fiber market in the first quarter is likely to rise but difficult to fall.