The Market Opens High And Moves High, Releasing The Surge Signal

The entrepreneurial sector and small and medium-sized sectors continued yesterday's strong trend, especially the entrepreneurial sector once again hit a new historical high of 1763.87 points, which shows that the recent bad news has only extended the space and time for market adjustment, and has not changed Index adjustment Ending trend. The market opened higher and went higher, releasing the surge signal.

Message side: Shanghai Stock Connect Net daily purchase of 5 billion scrambled financial stocks. Foreign capital scrambles to raise funds through the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect A-share Push again. Yesterday, there was another change in the Shanghai Stock Connect, with the daily quota of 13 billion yuan remaining 8.042 billion yuan, which means that the net purchase amount of the Shanghai Stock Connect was up to 4.958 billion yuan, nearly double the amount on Monday, not only hitting a new high this year, but also the highest daily quota use since the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect, except for the first day of quota use.

Side: Today, the market is expected to see a strong rebound again. Although the financial sector once retreated, the upward trend of the market has not changed. The steel sector has emerged as a new force, with the help of the heavyweight sectors. The securities companies and the banking sector in the market resumed their upward trend, driving the market to stop falling and rebound strongly. However, after the entrepreneurial sector rose, it fell back again, and the overall market style changed from "28" to "82". It can be seen that some funds began to seek bargains. The logic of the stock market's rise has not been destroyed. If the bull market pattern is not changed, there will still be a high point in the future market.

Technical aspect: today is an important time window for the "beginning of spring". The market continues to recover as scheduled, and the weight plates work together to help the market stand at the 3200 point mark and step on the 5-day moving average again, suggesting that the short-term trend will completely improve. It can be seen from the trend of the overall market recovery today that the adjustment of individual stocks has also been basically in place. Therefore, there is not much room for the market to fall. In terms of time cycle, it is expected to continue to rise to around the Spring Festival after rebounding and finishing up.

To sum up: The market opens high and moves high to release the surge signal. In the current market, investors' psychology will face a huge test. However, after the gradual recovery of the market, they launched a strong upward attack. The trend of accelerating the entry of main funds remains unchanged, reminding investors to follow the main steps and step on the pace of market progress. At present, the market is at a sensitive point, so investors must grasp the real investment direction. The leading stocks in the rebound and the individual stocks with a high degree of control of the main force are the objects we focus on. The main force of this kind of stocks has been ambushed in advance, and the chips are highly locked, so the future market will certainly launch a major upsurge.

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The macro report of CSCI pointed out that in 2014, with the establishment of RMB depreciation and two-way fluctuation expectations, the deficit of capital and financial items, especially financial items, began to become apparent. The deficit in capital and financial accounts, together with the surplus in current accounts, led to a slowdown in the growth of foreign exchange reserves and even a decline in some quarters. New foreign exchange accounts continued to shrink, so the monetary policy framework is also facing transformation, providing base currency through new channels. In general, economic transformation has brought about a series of changes in exchange rate, foreign exchange and monetary policy.

In fact, from the operation of the central bank since this year, it is more likely to release liquidity through the continuation of MLF (medium-term lending facility) and reverse repo. On February 3, the central bank will conduct a RMB 35 billion 7-day reverse repo operation and a RMB 55 billion 28 day reverse repo operation in the open market, putting a total of RMB 90 billion in liquidity into the market. "Big moves" such as interest rate reduction and reserve ratio reduction have not appeared.

Wen Bin said that, considering the trend of decrease in foreign exchange reserves, from the perspective of base currency supplement, it is necessary to reduce the reserve ratio. However, since the capital market soared after the interest rate cut at the end of last year, the central bank has been cautious about the comprehensive easing policy so far. In particular, if China also joins in the "currency war" and increases easing efforts, it will further increase the expectation of RMB depreciation. "However, whether it is reverse repo, MLF, or even extending the cycle of the innovative tool MLF to more than one year later, the problem of the basic money supply gap cannot be solved," he said.

Yang Chi, the head of the Strategy Office of the Development Research Department of Huaxia Bank, told the Economic Information Daily that under the background of capital outflow and RMB depreciation, the growth rate of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings slowed down or even decreased, which in fact provided a good condition for the central bank to improve its monetary policy initiative. The central bank will reduce its operations on the debt side and gradually withdraw from its intervention in the foreign exchange market. Operations on the asset side will increase, more targeted regulation tools will be used, and liquidity will be adjusted more actively.