The Invasion Of E-Commerce Has Led The Jewelry Industry To Develop The Footwear Industry Rapidly.

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Electronic Commerce < /a > is a disruptive force in the world. In China, the electricity supplier has the ability to sell products to consumers at close to the factory price, mainly through the C2C business channel Taobao network.

We believe that in the non sports footwear market, because the consumer pays more attention to the function / design than the brand, and the addition rate of the traditional retailing industry is very large, the traditional footwear market has become the primary goal of the network retailers to seize the share.

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< p > we estimate that the size of the Chinese women's shoes Market in 2012 is about 1 billion 500 million pairs, and the electricity supplier has 30% share in the market according to the sales volume, accounting for about 20% of the sales volume.

An in-depth analysis of Taobao shows that the number of women's shoes sold on Taobao is more than 10 million, and even the 2000th ranking seller (monthly sales) can sell 17000 pairs of shoes every year, compared with BELLE's 20000 pairs of single store sales.

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< p > < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > footwear > /a > sales are expected to continue to grow. We predict that the annual composite growth rate of the whole market will be 7% before 2020, and the average annual compound growth rate of the mid-range shoes will be 12%. But we expect that by 2020, BELLE's share in the mid-range shoe market will be reduced from about 30% to 20%.

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< p > < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > BELLE international < /a > to neutral. Daphne lowered to sell. We lowered BELLE international rating from buying to neutral and removed the shares from GSSUSTAIN's attention list.

Our adjusted 12 month target price is HK $10, corresponding to 14 times the expected price earnings ratio in 2014.

Although we have a modest reduction in the forecast of earnings per share for 2013-15 years (3%-7%), we believe that the increase in earnings per share of about 5% of the company will restrict the valuation of the stock.

We think Daphne is at the center of the storm because of its public positioning.

Our adjusted 12 month target price is HK $2.2 (corresponding to the 2014 expected earnings ratio of 9 times), which means a downward trend of 42%.

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< p > we are more optimistic about the relatively small jewellery shares affected by the electricity supplier. We believe that the jewellery industry is less threatened by the electricity supplier. The brand assets of the industry are strong and the valuation is still reasonable.

Within the scope of the study, the 2013-15 year earnings per share forecast of jewellery stocks has increased by an average of 7%-16%, taking into account the strong trend in the year to date and adjusted the target price accordingly.

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< p > we maintain the buy rating of Liu Fu, and raise the ratings of Zhou Dafu and Zhou Shengsheng from neutral to buying.

The new target price of three gold and jewellery stocks is 14.3 times the expected price earnings ratio in 2014.

We downgraded Hendry's rating from buying to neutral, because we expect the weakness of luxury watch demand will continue until 2014, thereby limiting the rebound in profitability / valuation.

In this report, we will also downgrade the Hongkong / China consumer industry from attractiveness to neutrality.

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