The Policy Of Dumping Or Storage Will Adjust The Probability Of Falling Cotton Prices In March.

< p > 1, market review: < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > zhengmian < /a > higher down, higher pressure at the top. In the global and China, loose supply and demand, high inventory, no obvious improvement in demand, close to the end of the purchase and storage, and the high turnover rate of dumping and storage, in February, Zheng cotton rushed down, and the main body's desire to catch up was not enough. In February 1st, the highest rebound in the market reached 20530, followed by concussion, and as of February 25th, the 09 contract of zhengmian main contract closed at 19800, up 95 points compared with January 25th 19705. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > China's cotton price < /a > index CCindex328 reported 19306 yuan / ton, up 25 points, the base is -494 yuan, compared with the -424 yuan in January 25th, it was 70 weaker. < /p >
< p > 2, the US dollar is strong, and the commodity is under pressure. The anticipation of the US Federal Reserve's early exit from quantitative easing is pushing up the US dollar, and commodities are under pressure. From the point of view of capital flows, the US dollar position will be changed from net to net, and the US dollar will continue to rebound. Global and Chinese cotton stocks are abundant, demand has not improved significantly, and China's inventory consumption ratio has increased by 120%. < /p >
< p > 3, the policy of dumping or storage will be adjusted, and Zheng cotton will face greater pressure. China's cotton reserves and quota policy have played a key role in cotton prices. The current dumping price is 19000, which is not attractive to textile enterprises, and the turnover rate is maintained at 35%. The rejection will end in March 31st. The policy of dumping or storage will be adjusted at the start of the next round of dumping. It is more likely to lower the price of dumping and storage. < /p >
< p > 4, summary and operation suggestion: cotton prices in March fall greatly. First, the strength of the US dollar has brought pressure on the whole commodities. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton < /a > is no exception. Second, from the fundamentals of supply and demand, it is still in a loose supply and demand pattern. Global and Chinese stocks are high, and China's inventory consumption reaches a record 120.02%. Judging from the industry index, the Keqiao textile index is currently in a downward trend, and is steadily declining. This means that the raw material market, including cotton, will face greater pressure in the future. Thirdly, from the perspective of industrial policy, the purchase and storage policy is coming to an end, and the policy of dumping and storage is facing adjustment, which will constitute a great pressure on Zheng cotton. In addition, from the seasonal law, the probability of falling cotton prices is large in March. Therefore, our suggestions for the cotton market in March are: in March, we mainly rely on short selling. The industry value insured customers and investors can hold the 1309 empty list set up above 20000, the lower target 19300-19000-18500. For us cotton, it can be cut short near 84 cents, with a target of 75 cents below. < /p >