In October 2012, The Textile And Garment Market Aggravated The Plate Anxiety.

Plate manifestation.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.3% in October and 4.5% in the year.

The industry index fell 0.4% in October, a 12.3% decline in the year; the Shen Wan textile manufacturing industry index increased by 1.9% in October, and the total decline in 6.2% during the year; the Shen Wan clothing and textile industry index fell 2.4% in October, and the total decline was 16.9% in the year.

The negative valuation was eliminated in October 30th: the textile and apparel industry was valued at 17.53 times, the textile manufacturing industry valued 17.18 times, and the apparel home textile industry valued 17.74 times.

Research and tracking of key companies:

(1) card slave Road: 1-9 month EPS is 0.93 yuan, the three quarter has benefited from the new store contribution, the performance exceeds expectation, optimistic about the high-end men's clothing advantage and business philosophy, 12-14 years EPS is expected to be 1.61/2.21/2.84, maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating;

(2) search special: 1-9 months EPS is 0.61 yuan, the company benefits extension and raw materials decline, the company's performance is growing rapidly, 12-14 years EPS is expected to be 0.91/1.25/1.63, maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating;

(3) seven wolves: 1-9 yuan EPS for 0.8 yuan, the results of the pformation of zero and zero show, the company's net interest rate continues to rise, it is estimated that 12-14 years EPS is 1.06/1.38/1.73, maintain "recommended" rating;

(4) nine herding King: 1-9 months EPS is 0.82 yuan, the company's direct battalion occupies relatively large, is easy to be affected by the terminal weakness, it is estimated that 12-14 years EPS is 1.14/1.21/1.46, considering that the stock price has dropped sharply in recent years, and the company's quality is good, maintaining "recommended" rating;

(5) American state

1-9 months EPS was 0.75 yuan, the terminal weakness and the resonance of the company's order mode reform caused the revenue growth to slow down, the performance was lower than expected. The 12-14 year EPS is expected to be 1.09/1.30/1.63. We are optimistic about the performance improvement of the 13 young companies after taking the battle, taking into account the recent stock price has dropped sharply, maintaining the "recommended" rating.

(6) Xingye Technology: 1-9 yuan EPS is 0.52 yuan, the company's revenue and earnings return to the track of sound growth on schedule. We are optimistic that the company will benefit from the Yu Zheng policy for a long time and continue to put into operation the stock investment project. It is estimated that 12-14 years EPS will be 0.61/0.76/1.01, maintaining the "prudent recommendation" rating, and the industry dynamics.

(1) retail sales in the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day golden week increased by 8.49% over the previous year, showing an increase of 10% over the previous year. (2) in September, the retail sales of the 50 major major retail enterprises grew by 4.75% over the same period last year, and the retail sales of clothing increased by 5.77% over the same period last year. (3) in September 2012, the number of major retail enterprises in the country increased by 7.8% over the same period last year, of which the clothing grew by 10.62% over the same period last year; (4) in the 2012 quarter of 2012, the prosperity index of the clothing industry index slowed down.

Investment perspective:

(1) textile manufacturing sector, domestic and foreign cotton price difference is still in the 4000 yuan up and down, external demand is only slightly warmer, the industry inflection point has not yet arrived, the recent increase in the plate of the company is mainly subject matter category (mining, restructuring), for the whole plate we judge is short-term maintenance of the shock pattern.

(2) the clothing home textile plate, because the brand leading enterprise three quarterly reports are not as good as expected (men's clothing is relatively stable, casual wear and home textiles are lower than expected), makes the entire plate has made the big adjustment, but we are still optimistic about the company that the performance growth is determined and has continuity.

In search of special and card road, but short of stock price stimulus, waiting for the valuation to switch.

Risk warning.

Cotton price difference continued high; external demand continued to slump; terminal consumption continued to be weak.