The United States Reported In October That China'S Demand Is The Focus Of Attention.

Cotton producers and analysts expect that in the October demand and supply report released by the US Department of agriculture, cotton production in the 2006 to 07 years is basically unchanged, but the focus of the market remains on China. Market participants are trying to determine how big the demand for the largest US cotton importing country is.

The US Department of agriculture report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on October 12th.

According to a survey by the Dow Jones media on Monday's industry and experts, US output is estimated at 20 million 200 thousand packages, lower than the 20 million 350 thousand packs reported last month.

A cotton trader said that due to severe drought in summer, cotton growth was affected, so the output was expected to decline slightly.

But another analyst expects a slight increase in output.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the recent cotton growth weekly convinced them that the output of the United States might outweigh the forecast.

For nearly two weeks, the report showed that the growth of cotton in the United States has improved to the best in the growing season.

The average rate of "extreme error and difference" was 30%, lower than 32% of last week's report, and the average rate of "good and excellent" was 41%, higher than 39% of last week's report.

Market participants predict that US cotton exports will be 15 million 710 thousand bales, slightly lower than last month's 16 million 200 thousand package, and the carry over inventory is expected to be 4 million 980 thousand packs, slightly higher than last month's 4 million 600 thousand package.

Meanwhile, the cotton industry will continue to observe the adjustment of the US Department of agriculture's data on cotton consumption and output in China, especially after some famous cotton agencies in recent years have made some data revisions.

Cotlook, headquartered in the UK, recently adjusted China's demand for cotton in 2006 to 2007, reducing the 11 million tons reported last month to 10 million 500 thousand tons, leading to a reduction in world cotton consumption.

According to the Cotton Outlook report, the world cotton consumption in 2006 to 2007 is expected to be 25 million 891 thousand tons, down by 535,00 tons compared with the 26 million 426 thousand tons reported in August.

Meanwhile, world cotton production has been adjusted to 417000 tons, to 25 million 99 thousand tons, higher than the 24 million 682 thousand tons reported last month.

Cotlook has reduced China's cotton consumption in 2005 to 06 and 2006 to 07 years by 600 thousand tons and 500 thousand tons respectively, raising the 2006 to 07 production in China to 6340000 tons, mainly affected by the China Cotton Association's report last month.

Therefore, Cotlook expects world stocks to drop by nearly 1000000 tons.

After both China and Cotlook revised the Chinese data, it seems that the expected answer has been made. Similar adjustments will be made in the report issued by the US Department of agriculture on Thursday. (ICAC)

Egli of the Plexus risk management agency expects that China's cotton consumption will be cut by 300-400 packages, and China's production will be reduced by 1 million packages.

China's final inventory has been raised to 1500-1600 bales, and there may be some revisions in the loss column.

Bill Nelson of A.G. Edwards said that China's output could be raised to 29 million bales.

In a forthcoming report, whether China's demand is down is the key, but any possible downgrade has been digested by the market and it is impossible to stimulate demand expansion.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee revised world consumption this month. The agency expects that world cotton consumption will rise to 25 million 600 thousand tons, or 118 million packets, larger than 24 million 790 thousand tons, or 113 million 900 thousand packages, of the previous year.

The growth rate is less than two years ago.

Recently, the most active cotton contract in December was low.

Analyst Johnson said she doubted whether the October report could stimulate market demand to form a more stable rise, but the October report could stop the market from falling.

The US Department of agriculture and the world's agricultural raw materials and demand (WASDE) report in October must have some very practical potential factors that affect market trends.