PTA Oscillations Intensify And Wait For Downstream Consumption To Start

Due to concerns about the deterioration of the sovereign debt problem in Greece and the expected impact of tighter monetary policies of various countries, the global commodity market has been oscillating in recent years.

Strong crude oil oscillation, PTA costs have support

Under the impact of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, the euro's strong currency position is in jeopardy, and the US dollar index has continued to rebound strongly.

But in the near future, due to the active global oil consumption, demand is gradually rising, and the price of crude oil is mainly around 80 US dollar / barrel oscillation.

The strong performance of the US dollar did not weaken the rising trend of crude oil prices, and the US dollar and crude oil showed a synchronous high oscillation in the near future.

Statistics show that OPEC crude oil output was stable in February, crude oil produced 29 million 490 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 20 thousand barrels over January.

In addition, OPEC made a decision to maintain the current quota of crude oil production at the Ministerial Conference held in March 17th.

In mid March, US crude oil inventories increased by 1 million barrels to 344 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1 million 700 thousand barrels to 227 million 300 thousand barrels; stock of distillate oil, including heating oil and diesel, decreased by 1 million 500 thousand barrels, with a total stock of 148 million 100 thousand barrels and a decrease for seventh weeks in a row.

From the perspective of crude oil consumption, output and inventory, the basis for strengthening the strength of crude oil in the short term is present.

The high price of crude oil has brought the cost support to the price trend of PTA, which directly led to the increase of the price of downstream petrochemical products.

In March 19th, PX Asia was 1026 - 1027 dollars / ton FOB Korea, and the European market remained stable at 1013 - 1017 dollars / ton FOB Rotterdam, the US 1015 - 1020 US dollars / ton FOB the Gulf of America.

At present, the price of PX is relatively ideal, while the downstream polyester and textile consumption of PTA has not been fully started. In April, the PTA plant will usher in a centralized overhaul, which will not cause too much pressure on PTA production in the short term. However, the strong performance of crude oil will form a support for the PTA trend from cost.

Loose monetary policy and strong consumption in the domestic market, to a certain extent, prompted the domestic economy to successfully shake off the impact of the global economic crisis in 2009. However, a series of problems, such as rising prices and overcapacity in some industries, seriously affected the normal and healthy development of the domestic economy.

At present, the tightening of monetary policy is the consensus of the market. The central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks for the two time in a short period of time and has derided the policy from the policy.

The Ministry of industry and Commerce issued the 18 spring report on China's industrial economic operation in 2010. The report said that China's industrial economy showed a good trend of recovery. At the same time, it pointed out that the current industrial economic operation is still facing six difficulties, and the problem of overcapacity in many industries is serious. The overcapacity of raw materials, ships and textile industry is particularly prominent.

China's fiber processing capacity is close to 50% of the total global processing capacity. In recent years, capacity expansion has been rapid. The tendency of low-level duplication construction and high quality homogenization development is obvious.

The tightening of monetary policy and the problem of overcapacity will restrict the rise of PTA prices to a certain extent, and the market oscillation will increase.

At present, the biggest risk of the PTA market is the uncertainty of macroeconomic policy. The domestic rapid improvement of economic data makes the market expect more stringent macroeconomic regulation and control policies will be gradually introduced, market funds are prudent in operation, the related commodities are substantially adjusted, and PTA is also hard to be independent. In the short term, the adjustment of oscillation is inevitable.

Downstream polyester

As the gross profit of polyester filament products is gradually picking up, stimulating the polyester plant to increase the operating rate, the demand for the peak season will gradually start.

At present, the overall operation rate of the polyester plant has risen to 76.5%, while some of the mills are slightly higher, but they are still at normal level. After the consumption is gradually consumed, the grey fabric factory will once again enter the replenishment period.

After the festival, the production process of some textile enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is affected due to the shortage of migrant workers.

Due to the availability of orders, many weaving factories have scheduled their production to May and June.

The export of textiles and clothing has been improving. The relevant data show that the total export volume of textiles and clothing in the first two months of this year amounted to US $28 billion 242 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.98%, while the growth rate in February was 89%. In the first two months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 17.9% compared with the same period last year, while the total retail sales of clothing and footwear and consumer goods increased by 23.3%. The growth rate of retail sales of clothing consumer goods has surpassed the social average growth rate for many years, indicating that domestic sales are continuing to grow vigorously.

In addition, the recent surge in the overall volatility of commodities has led to a stronger price in the cotton market due to reduced production and tight supply and demand. At present, the futures contract is stabilized at 17000 yuan / ton line, which has a certain supporting role in PTA prices.

With the further warming of the domestic and export markets, the textile and garment industry will further promote the polyester industry in the upstream, thus promoting the consumption of PTA.

At present, crude oil is still being consolidated at high level, supporting the cost of PTA formation in the short term, while the downstream polyester and textile market will enter the peak season of consumption. PTA in the future market still has the possibility of further adjustment after adjustment.

However, if the country further takes the liquidity policy, it will have a negative impact on the financial market, and the trend of PTA will also face a callback.