Analysis And Prospect Of China'S Textile Industry'S 2016 Market

Gao Yong's speech at the summit forum of China's cotton industry development

Gao Yong, vice president and Secretary General of China Textile Industry Federation

Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,

Good morning!

I am delighted to attend the China Cotton Development Summit. Cotton industry On the basis of the last guest's speech, we would like to make some additions from the perspective of textile raw materials. During the "12th Five-Year" period, it should be said that the development rate of the textile industry has dropped markedly under the slowing down of the world economy and the new economy of the Chinese economy, but it is not bad compared with other industries in China.

In 2015, the main business income of the textile industry above scale exceeded seven trillion for the first time. Whether it was the main business income or profit growth, it was also leading in the industrial field. At the end of 2015, the State Council listened to the reports of two industries of textile and light industry. After hearing the report, several leading comrades of the State Council said that light industry and textile industry have become the pillar industries of China's industrial economic growth. Therefore, the leaders of the State Council proposed that we should carry out the "Three Goods" action in the industrial field, especially in the consumer goods field, that is, increasing varieties, improving quality and creating brand names. After nearly half a year's efforts, several textile industry associations and the consumer goods industry division jointly formulated the industrial "three products" strategic action plan, which was formally approved at the executive meeting of the State Council on the morning of 11. After the meeting, the Ministry of industry organized many central media interviews with the Ministry of industry and information and the textile and light industry. In response to the reporter, the reporter asked, "why the textile industry is able to maintain the proper speed of development in the industrial field under the condition that the whole industry is not good?" I said, in fact, we have already grasped two adjustments during the "12th Five-Year", which coincides with the later structural reform of the supply side proposed by the Central Committee. During the "12th Five-Year" period, we first grasped the readjustment of the industrial structure. cotton Industry is related. During the "12th Five-Year" period, our fiber consumption increased by more than 5% per year, but in the past two or thirty years, the average annual growth of fiber in the world was around 3.5%. In the last two years, in 2014, especially in 2015, our annual average fibre Consumption has also dropped to 3.5%, which is basically the same as the world's growth rate. However, judging from the world's total fiber consumption, it was about 90000000 tons in 2014, estimated to be around 95 million tons in the world in 2015, and China's Statistics Bureau announced that China's fiber processing capacity was 53 million tons. Of course, the world's 95 million tons and China's 53 million tons are not exactly the same caliber statistics, the world's statistical caliber does not include polypropylene and all kinds of hemp fibers, China's statistical caliber contains these two parts. So we always say that China consumes more than half of the world's fiber consumption and processing capacity.

The proportion of cotton fiber in the total amount of these about 90000000 tons of fiber is declining in 2015 and 2011. In 2015, the world's cotton consumption accounts for more than 1/4 of the total fiber consumption, which is lower than 30%. However, the proportion of cotton consumption in China's fiber consumption in the whole country is lower than that in the world, which is only about 13%. That is to say, the proportion of cotton in China's total fiber consumption is only half that of the world.

In the past, our annual growth of more than five percent was almost entirely dependent on chemical fibers, and since 2012, the decline in export volume of China's textile and clothing began with the negative growth of cotton fiber and cotton related products. So I think comrades who are here in the cotton industry should pay attention to this. In the past five to ten years, especially in the past four years, the development of our textile industry depended on the growth of chemical fibers. In contrast, in fact, the proportion of cotton consumption has decreased, but the total consumption of cotton fiber has not decreased much. Compared with 6 million tons in 2015, the cotton consumption in China was reduced by about about 4000000 tons, and the consumption of about about 2000000 tons was made up of imported cotton yarn. Therefore, compared with the peak period, our actual cotton consumption has decreased by about 1000000 tons, and I believe the about 1000000 ton will also be recovered. From the end of last year to the last few months, when the price difference between cotton and domestic cotton was less than 1500 yuan, the import of low coarse cotton yarn began to decrease, and domestic cotton yarn processing began to increase, and the export of domestic cotton yarn began to recover. This is the specific situation of raw materials for the entire textile industry during the "12th Five-Year" period.

Next we will talk about our plan during the 13th Five-Year. In the last year of 12th Five-Year, our fiber processing capacity was 53 million tons. In the textile industry "13th Five-Year" development plan, we expect that in 2020, China's fiber processing volume will reach 60 million tons, with an annual increment of less than 2 million tons of about 1000000 tons, an increase of about 3.5%, basically the same as the average increase in the world from twenty to thirty years. However, the growth of 7 million tons mainly depends on the increase of industrial fiber, that is, during the "13th Five-Year" period, the growth of fiber processing capacity in the entire textile industry is basically in industrial textiles. Industrial textiles accounted for about 1/4 of fiber processing in 2015. We plan to increase this proportion to 1/3 in the next five years. If growth reaches 1/3, the increment of fiber processing will basically be eaten by industrial textiles.

As we all know, in industrial textiles, except for a very small number of special fields, cotton fibers are basically used in chemical fibers. However, we expect that in the next five years, domestic cotton consumption can be restored to 7 million 500 thousand tons, and five years will increase by 1 million tons. The expected value is not high, and it should be a relatively low expectation. However, this is also a prediction and expectation based on the current state of raw material inventory, domestic and foreign cotton price difference and international cotton cultivation and production over the years. According to the various indicators, cotton fiber is irreplaceable at present, so in the future, we still hope that cotton fiber can play a leading role in clothing and home textiles.

During the opening ceremony, chairman Luo Lin and Dai president both mentioned the development of cotton industry and will change from "heavy output" to "heavy quality" in the past. During the "12th Five-Year" period, China's cotton planting area decreased from about 70000000 Mu to about 50000000 mu, and its area decreased by nearly 20 million mu, but its output only decreased by about 1000000 tons. This shows that the cotton yield per unit area in China has increased over the past five years, which is a great achievement. However, in the past two years, the decline of cotton quality has become the theme of conference and appeal in various industries. Personally, I think that the decline of cotton quality should be seen from different angles. First, in the past few years, we have focused on increasing production, and indeed some quality indicators have dropped, cotton fibers have been thicker, and the number of 28 millimeters has been decreasing. However, from the perspective of China's spinning industry, the demand for fiber in spinning industry is higher and higher.

Now, in order to improve the added value of yarn, we must use high quality cotton to develop in high and fine branches. Almost all the low count yarns are imported. At the same time, the spinning mills are constantly upgrading automation and intellectualization, and fewer and fewer workers. Therefore, the demand for cotton fiber is getting higher and higher. For this point, this summit forum clearly put forward the change of cotton industry development mode, from heavy quantity to heavy quality spanformation. I think it is very important that we can accomplish this change to our spinning industry should be a good news. At the same time, I noticed that most of the people here today are people in the cotton circulation industry. I hope that in the spanformation process of our cotton industry, the circulation enterprises should also change and serve the cotton spinning enterprises in the circulation industry. Because with the increasing degree of intelligence and automation, our cotton textile enterprises are using fewer and fewer people, and even purchasing links. If our circulation industry can orient and precision the service of our cotton spinning enterprises, and even the cotton can be done well before, I think our cotton spinning enterprises must be very welcome.

Thank you!